Setting description

Niraparib more effective in the DRD+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 3 1 90
TP53- 11 3 110
TP53+ 15 14 101
DRD+ 13 5 421
TEfus+ 10 9 97
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.006 0.002 0.180
TP53- 0.022 0.006 0.220
TP53+ 0.030 0.028 0.202
DRD+ 0.026 0.010 0.842
TEfus+ 0.020 0.018 0.194
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 43 63 3
TP53- 197 199 12
TP53+ 162 181 20
DRD+ 119 99 2
TEfus+ 152 169 11
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.086 0.126 0.006
TP53- 0.394 0.398 0.024
TP53+ 0.324 0.362 0.040
DRD+ 0.238 0.198 0.004
TEfus+ 0.304 0.338 0.022
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 66 65 77
TP53+ 8 14 5
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.132 0.130 0.154
TP53+ 0.016 0.028 0.010
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.18.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.094             0.056             0.046

The overall power was 0.842.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.000             0.000             0.842

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 3 1 90
futility 0 43 63 3
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 700 (616, 756) 339 (193, 499) 333 (163, 483) 348 (219, 477)
n_unique 700 (616, 756) 339 (193, 499) 333 (163, 483) 348 (219, 477)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (46, 60) 60 (39, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 40 (20, 53) 32 (9, 51) 37 (21, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.89) 0.45 (0.1, 0.88) 1 (0.93, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.022) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025) 0.017 (0.015, 0.018)
TP53- graduation 0 11 3 110
futility 0 197 199 12
max_n 0 66 65 77
n 385 (324, 424) 184 (64, 301) 172 (62, 301) 190 (105, 301)
n_unique 385 (324, 424) 184 (64, 301) 172 (62, 301) 190 (105, 301)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (35, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (16, 53) 29 (17, 51) 39 (23, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.09, 0.89) 0.44 (0.08, 0.86) 0.98 (0.79, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.016 (0.014, 0.019)
TP53+ graduation 0 15 14 101
futility 0 162 181 20
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 318 (272, 353) 156 (60, 257) 150 (56, 264) 143 (85, 226)
n_unique 318 (272, 353) 156 (60, 257) 150 (56, 264) 143 (85, 226)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (29, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (35, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 35 (23, 54) 29 (16, 52) 38 (24, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.07, 0.89) 0.46 (0.1, 0.9) 0.96 (0.68, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026) 0.017 (0.014, 0.02)
DRD+ graduation 0 13 5 421
futility 0 119 99 2
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 185 (138, 214) 80 (46, 135) 72 (38, 127) 106 (76, 152)
n_unique 185 (138, 214) 80 (46, 135) 72 (38, 127) 106 (76, 152)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (42, 60) 60 (44, 60) 42 (32, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 44 (33, 55) 45 (33, 56) 40 (31, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.1, 0.88) 0.47 (0.11, 0.9) 1 (1, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 10 9 97
futility 0 152 169 11
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 252 (206, 282) 117 (52, 191) 117 (52, 193) 125 (81, 187)
n_unique 252 (206, 282) 117 (52, 191) 117 (52, 193) 125 (81, 187)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (31, 60) 60 (25, 60) 60 (39, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (25, 50) 32 (20, 54) 39 (27, 55)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.09, 0.86) 0.48 (0.09, 0.89) 0.98 (0.81, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.018, 0.026) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.016 (0.013, 0.018)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 214 223 171
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 65 65 75
n 216 (180, 248) 91 (31, 197) 82 (27, 193) 90 (33, 188)
n_unique 216 (180, 248) 91 (31, 197) 82 (27, 193) 90 (33, 188)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.1, 0.86) 0.42 (0.09, 0.85) 0.48 (0.1, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.023) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.021 (0.018, 0.028)
–+ graduation 0 285 285 206
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 64 64 74
n 61 (45, 75) 26 (10, 60) 23 (10, 59) 27 (11, 56)
n_unique 61 (45, 75) 26 (10, 60) 23 (10, 59) 27 (11, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.14, 0.86) 0.45 (0.1, 0.88) 0.49 (0.12, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033)
-+- graduation 0 190 212 172
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 139 (115, 161) 66 (20, 131) 56 (22, 133) 52 (18, 120)
n_unique 139 (115, 161) 66 (20, 131) 56 (22, 133) 52 (18, 120)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.1, 0.9) 0.45 (0.09, 0.88) 0.47 (0.09, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.021 (0.017, 0.031)
-++ graduation 0 269 287 229
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 100 (75, 117) 40 (14, 94) 40 (16, 98) 40 (15, 88)
n_unique 100 (75, 117) 40 (14, 94) 40 (16, 98) 40 (15, 88)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.1, 0.86) 0.49 (0.1, 0.88) 0.5 (0.1, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.023 (0.017, 0.033) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.021 (0.017, 0.03)
+– graduation 0 277 264 401
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 62 64 62
n 54 (38, 67) 20 (7, 46) 18 (6, 44) 30 (17, 50)
n_unique 54 (38, 67) 20 (7, 46) 18 (6, 44) 30 (17, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.13, 0.82) 0.43 (0.12, 0.83) 0.98 (0.81, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014)
+-+ graduation 0 319 315 410
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 61 63 62
n 52 (30, 66) 17 (6, 46) 17 (6, 45) 30 (18, 50)
n_unique 52 (30, 66) 17 (6, 46) 17 (6, 45) 30 (18, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.1, 0.82) 0.41 (0.1, 0.81) 0.98 (0.79, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014)
++- graduation 0 266 272 445
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 40 (26, 52) 17 (6, 36) 16 (4, 34) 22 (13, 36)
n_unique 40 (26, 52) 17 (6, 36) 16 (4, 34) 22 (13, 36)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.11, 0.83) 0.46 (0.12, 0.82) 0.94 (0.7, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.028) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.013, 0.036) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)
+++ graduation 0 322 332 456
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 14 5
n 39 (24, 49) 16 (6, 35) 14 (4, 34) 21 (12, 34)
n_unique 39 (24, 49) 16 (6, 35) 14 (4, 34) 21 (12, 34)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.12, 0.83) 0.43 (0.14, 0.82) 0.94 (0.71, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.022 (0.013, 0.035) 0.022 (0.014, 0.039) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 3 1 90
time_stop 50 (33, 51) 52 (52, 52) 38 (21, 53)
n_trt 261 (225, 405) 462 (462, 462) 257 (159, 387)
n_control 553 (368, 578) 590 (590, 590) 404 (217, 634)
post_p 0.99 (0.96, 1) 0.96 (0.96, 0.96) 1 (0.98, 1)
order 2 (1.2, 4.4) 2 (2, 2) 1 (1, 4)
TP53- count 11 3 110
time_stop 40 (31, 58) 40 (31, 50) 41 (26, 53)
n_trt 161 (122, 264) 174 (108, 189) 162 (105, 230)
n_control 224 (152, 344) 219 (196, 313) 243 (157, 338)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.98 (0.97, 1) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 1 (1, 4) 2 (1.2, 4.4) 2 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 15 14 101
time_stop 41 (26, 56) 46 (34, 57) 41 (29, 54)
n_trt 135 (89, 198) 164 (124, 215) 132 (87, 194)
n_control 207 (120, 284) 242 (159, 295) 207 (141, 290)
post_p 0.97 (0.95, 1) 0.98 (0.95, 0.99) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1, 3.6) 2.5 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
DRD+ count 13 5 421
time_stop 45 (37, 58) 46 (37, 57) 40 (31, 52)
n_trt 70 (53, 104) 72 (71, 100) 104 (77, 140)
n_control 138 (106, 168) 135 (117, 191) 124 (92, 166)
post_p 0.99 (0.96, 1) 0.99 (0.97, 1) 1 (0.99, 1)
order 2 (1, 3) 2 (1.4, 5.6) 1 (1, 3)
TEfus+ count 10 9 97
time_stop 40 (29, 48) 47 (39, 55) 41 (29, 56)
n_trt 100 (60, 144) 156 (89, 183) 112 (75, 158)
n_control 160 (143, 187) 212 (135, 233) 168 (107, 230)
post_p 0.96 (0.92, 1) 0.98 (0.95, 1) 1 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 43 63 3
time_stop 39 (20, 54) 31 (9, 50) 20 (15, 22)
n_trt 172 (97, 275) 150 (70, 249) 98 (83, 126)
n_control 428 (220, 594) 337 (102, 589) 210 (152, 233)
post_p 0.05 (0.01, 0.16) 0.09 (0.01, 0.23) 0.26 (0.14, 0.27)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5) 1 (1, 1.8)
TP53- count 197 199 12
time_stop 29 (16, 53) 29 (17, 51) 20 (17, 25)
n_trt 89 (52, 196) 87 (55, 192) 66 (57, 77)
n_control 169 (88, 346) 171 (95, 326) 114 (96, 146)
post_p 0.16 (0.03, 0.27) 0.17 (0.04, 0.27) 0.22 (0.13, 0.29)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4) 1.5 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 162 181 20
time_stop 35 (23, 54) 27 (16, 50) 23 (18, 30)
n_trt 82 (52, 171) 73 (53, 139) 60 (51, 78)
n_control 174 (108, 284) 132 (76, 254) 105 (78, 153)
post_p 0.14 (0.03, 0.25) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27) 0.19 (0.07, 0.28)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 1.5 (1, 3)
DRD+ count 119 99 2
time_stop 44 (33, 55) 45 (33, 55) 20 (18, 21)
n_trt 58 (50, 87) 55 (50, 87) 52 (51, 53)
n_control 140 (93, 183) 134 (96, 173) 62 (60, 64)
post_p 0.16 (0.05, 0.27) 0.16 (0.06, 0.26) 0.24 (0.22, 0.25)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9)
TEfus+ count 152 169 11
time_stop 36 (25, 50) 32 (20, 53) 26 (19, 32)
n_trt 64 (50, 125) 64 (51, 118) 60 (51, 112)
n_control 142 (92, 214) 124 (75, 218) 105 (73, 133)
post_p 0.13 (0.05, 0.25) 0.16 (0.04, 0.27) 0.18 (0.1, 0.26)
order 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 3)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51) 50 (33, 51)
n 91 (57, 184) 25 (16, 39) 38 (28, 70) 33 (21, 72) 31 (17, 33) 17 (17, 22) 15 (9, 19) 11 (10, 16)
post_p 0.66 (0.6, 0.92) 0.63 (0.59, 0.71) 0.76 (0.72, 0.91) 0.68 (0.64, 0.82) 0.78 (0.61, 0.79) 0.66 (0.58, 0.78) 0.82 (0.77, 0.84) 0.63 (0.59, 0.77)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.022) 0.02 (0.019, 0.021) 0.016 (0.013, 0.021) 0.02 (0.019, 0.02) 0.014 (0.014, 0.015) 0.012 (0.009, 0.021) 0.012 (0.012, 0.017) 0.007 (0.001, 0.015)
Taxel_therapies count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52) 52 (52, 52)
n 114 (114, 114) 37 (37, 37) 122 (122, 122) 69 (69, 69) 40 (40, 40) 33 (33, 33) 25 (25, 25) 22 (22, 22)
post_p 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) 0.84 (0.84, 0.84) 0.59 (0.59, 0.59) 0.79 (0.79, 0.79) 0.94 (0.94, 0.94) 0.59 (0.59, 0.59) 0.58 (0.58, 0.58)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.023, 0.023) 0.012 (0.012, 0.012) 0.018 (0.018, 0.018) 0.019 (0.019, 0.019) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.019 (0.019, 0.019) 0.02 (0.02, 0.02)
Niraparib count 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
time 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53) 38 (21, 53)
n 66 (35, 137) 20 (9, 45) 43 (18, 82) 34 (16, 55) 24 (15, 40) 25 (15, 38) 18 (10, 26) 18 (11, 26)
post_p 0.69 (0.58, 0.89) 0.64 (0.56, 0.82) 0.7 (0.56, 0.93) 0.7 (0.56, 0.9) 0.8 (0.6, 0.99) 0.8 (0.58, 0.99) 0.73 (0.57, 0.98) 0.73 (0.57, 0.97)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.009, 0.02) 0.014 (0.006, 0.021) 0.015 (0.008, 0.02) 0.015 (0.006, 0.021) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.015) 0.007 (0, 0.015) 0.008 (0, 0.014)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 11 11 11 11
time 40 (31, 58) 40 (31, 58) 40 (31, 58) 40 (31, 58)
n 101 (67, 130) 26 (16, 47) 14 (12, 38) 17 (14, 29)
post_p 0.77 (0.74, 0.92) 0.81 (0.75, 0.9) 0.81 (0.71, 0.86) 0.76 (0.7, 0.8)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.014, 0.021) 0.011 (0, 0.019) 0.011 (0.005, 0.016) 0.012 (0.004, 0.018)
Taxel_therapies count 3 3 3 3
time 40 (31, 50) 40 (31, 50) 40 (31, 50) 40 (31, 50)
n 74 (40, 99) 39 (25, 39) 21 (19, 37) 20 (18, 28)
post_p 0.8 (0.77, 0.93) 0.8 (0.77, 0.9) 0.82 (0.76, 0.94) 0.74 (0.73, 0.85)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.013, 0.019) 0.012 (0.009, 0.018) 0.009 (0.009, 0.012) 0.009 (0.002, 0.015)
Niraparib count 110 110 110 110
time 41 (26, 53) 41 (26, 53) 41 (26, 53) 41 (26, 53)
n 78 (45, 132) 25 (10, 45) 26 (16, 40) 27 (17, 41)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.91) 0.77 (0.7, 0.91) 0.88 (0.72, 1) 0.86 (0.72, 0.99)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.011, 0.019) 0.012 (0.005, 0.019) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 15 15 15 15
time 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56) 41 (26, 56)
n 61 (28, 77) 45 (32, 73) 14 (6, 29) 19 (10, 28)
post_p 0.77 (0.72, 0.92) 0.79 (0.75, 0.92) 0.72 (0.6, 0.87) 0.77 (0.64, 0.93)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.013, 0.018) 0.015 (0.011, 0.018) 0.01 (0.002, 0.017) 0.011 (0, 0.016)
Taxel_therapies count 14 14 14 14
time 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57) 46 (34, 57)
n 68 (57, 107) 50 (35, 87) 20 (9, 26) 20 (14, 33)
post_p 0.85 (0.71, 0.94) 0.76 (0.72, 0.93) 0.76 (0.64, 0.88) 0.82 (0.74, 0.93)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.021) 0.016 (0.01, 0.02) 0.009 (0.006, 0.015) 0.012 (0.007, 0.015)
Niraparib count 101 101 101 101
time 41 (29, 54) 41 (29, 54) 41 (29, 54) 41 (29, 54)
n 53 (25, 86) 38 (23, 69) 21 (13, 31) 20 (12, 28)
post_p 0.79 (0.72, 0.94) 0.8 (0.72, 0.93) 0.81 (0.7, 0.97) 0.83 (0.71, 0.98)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.009, 0.019) 0.015 (0.008, 0.019) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) 0.008 (0.002, 0.013)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 13 13 13 13
time 45 (37, 58) 45 (37, 58) 45 (37, 58) 45 (37, 58)
n 18 (9, 30) 18 (6, 45) 20 (10, 27) 15 (8, 31)
post_p 0.8 (0.72, 0.95) 0.74 (0.65, 0.89) 0.81 (0.73, 0.91) 0.73 (0.64, 0.9)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.004, 0.016) 0.01 (0.005, 0.019) 0.011 (0.007, 0.019) 0.01 (0.008, 0.016)
Taxel_therapies count 5 5 5 5
time 46 (37, 57) 46 (37, 57) 46 (37, 57) 46 (37, 57)
n 18 (9, 20) 15 (9, 29) 18 (11, 32) 30 (20, 32)
post_p 0.74 (0.66, 0.81) 0.81 (0.67, 0.85) 0.88 (0.74, 0.92) 0.83 (0.75, 0.91)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.015) 0.016 (0.012, 0.018) 0.01 (0.005, 0.013) 0.011 (0.006, 0.014)
Niraparib count 421 421 421 421
time 40 (31, 52) 40 (31, 52) 40 (31, 52) 40 (31, 52)
n 29 (17, 44) 30 (18, 46) 22 (14, 34) 21 (13, 32)
post_p 0.88 (0.72, 0.99) 0.87 (0.73, 1) 0.8 (0.71, 0.97) 0.79 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) 0.009 (0.003, 0.014)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 10 10 10 10
time 40 (29, 48) 40 (29, 48) 40 (29, 48) 40 (29, 48)
n 26 (14, 50) 39 (27, 71) 15 (8, 24) 16 (10, 29)
post_p 0.77 (0.73, 0.84) 0.79 (0.73, 0.89) 0.73 (0.62, 0.82) 0.76 (0.66, 0.87)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.012, 0.017) 0.014 (0.005, 0.017) 0.013 (0.007, 0.019) 0.009 (0, 0.015)
Taxel_therapies count 9 9 9 9
time 47 (39, 55) 47 (39, 55) 47 (39, 55) 47 (39, 55)
n 29 (9, 45) 75 (50, 89) 29 (8, 39) 16 (7, 23)
post_p 0.87 (0.69, 0.96) 0.83 (0.72, 0.96) 0.72 (0.69, 0.83) 0.72 (0.65, 0.88)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.01, 0.021) 0.017 (0.012, 0.019) 0.013 (0.011, 0.016) 0.011 (0.009, 0.016)
Niraparib count 97 97 97 97
time 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56) 41 (29, 56)
n 24 (12, 44) 38 (23, 65) 27 (18, 39) 20 (13, 29)
post_p 0.75 (0.71, 0.9) 0.79 (0.71, 0.93) 0.88 (0.73, 0.99) 0.82 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.008, 0.019) 0.014 (0.009, 0.02) 0.008 (0.003, 0.013) 0.009 (0.002, 0.013)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
time 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54) 39 (20, 54)
n 44 (25, 113) 14 (8, 35) 30 (13, 69) 23 (8, 49) 8 (4, 21) 8 (4, 22) 10 (4, 17) 8 (5, 19)
post_p 0.28 (0.09, 0.48) 0.39 (0.18, 0.48) 0.33 (0.1, 0.49) 0.31 (0.06, 0.46) 0.4 (0.08, 0.48) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.4 (0.22, 0.48) 0.42 (0.24, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.019, 0.028) 0.022 (0.016, 0.039) 0.023 (0.017, 0.032) 0.025 (0.018, 0.039) 0.027 (0.019, 0.068) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.023 (0.017, 0.037) 0.024 (0.014, 0.039)
Taxel_therapies count 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
time 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50) 31 (9, 50)
n 34 (16, 98) 15 (7, 26) 25 (15, 62) 20 (12, 41) 9 (3, 21) 9 (2, 18) 7 (1, 14) 6 (1, 14)
post_p 0.39 (0.08, 0.47) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.38 (0.08, 0.48) 0.34 (0.08, 0.48) 0.38 (0.15, 0.49) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.43 (0.21, 0.49) 0.41 (0.21, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.023 (0.015, 0.041) 0.023 (0.016, 0.031) 0.025 (0.016, 0.033) 0.026 (0, 0.046) 0.021 (0, 0.039) 0.022 (0, 0.05) 0.022 (0, 0.052)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22) 20 (15, 22)
n 19 (16, 25) 3 (2, 12) 14 (13, 20) 9 (9, 18) 12 (9, 12) 18 (12, 21) 11 (10, 13) 9 (6, 13)
post_p 0.31 (0.15, 0.45) 0.47 (0.45, 0.48) 0.43 (0.43, 0.48) 0.47 (0.21, 0.48) 0.47 (0.42, 0.48) 0.48 (0.38, 0.49) 0.48 (0.47, 0.49) 0.4 (0.35, 0.43)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.036 (0.022, 0.041) 0.019 (0.004, 0.044) 0.015 (0.012, 0.025) 0.018 (0.017, 0.052) 0.01 (0.002, 0.019) 0.008 (0.005, 0.011) 0.01 (0.008, 0.017) 0.023 (0.021, 0.025)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 197 197 197 197
time 29 (16, 53) 29 (16, 53) 29 (16, 53) 29 (16, 53)
n 47 (27, 119) 14 (8, 42) 11 (5, 27) 10 (5, 26)
post_p 0.31 (0.08, 0.47) 0.41 (0.16, 0.48) 0.42 (0.2, 0.48) 0.42 (0.19, 0.49)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.028) 0.022 (0.015, 0.039) 0.024 (0.015, 0.062) 0.023 (0.013, 0.041)
Taxel_therapies count 199 199 199 199
time 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51) 29 (17, 51)
n 47 (24, 130) 16 (9, 34) 11 (6, 22) 10 (6, 22)
post_p 0.32 (0.08, 0.47) 0.38 (0.12, 0.48) 0.42 (0.22, 0.49) 0.43 (0.17, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.016, 0.028) 0.023 (0.014, 0.037) 0.022 (0.013, 0.041) 0.022 (0.013, 0.044)
Niraparib count 12 12 12 12
time 20 (17, 25) 20 (17, 25) 20 (17, 25) 20 (17, 25)
n 26 (19, 45) 12 (7, 15) 12 (8, 19) 12 (10, 20)
post_p 0.39 (0.15, 0.47) 0.46 (0.43, 0.48) 0.41 (0.34, 0.48) 0.4 (0.28, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.03) 0.023 (0.011, 0.029) 0.017 (0.011, 0.025) 0.017 (0.008, 0.029)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 162 162 162 162
time 35 (23, 54) 35 (23, 54) 35 (23, 54) 35 (23, 54)
n 32 (15, 91) 22 (12, 53) 10 (5, 23) 11 (6, 22)
post_p 0.35 (0.11, 0.47) 0.33 (0.09, 0.47) 0.4 (0.18, 0.48) 0.41 (0.18, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.023 (0.017, 0.037) 0.023 (0.016, 0.041) 0.023 (0.015, 0.039)
Taxel_therapies count 181 181 181 181
time 27 (16, 50) 27 (16, 50) 27 (16, 50) 27 (16, 50)
n 31 (20, 66) 24 (15, 50) 8 (3, 18) 7 (4, 17)
post_p 0.35 (0.08, 0.47) 0.35 (0.1, 0.48) 0.43 (0.26, 0.49) 0.43 (0.26, 0.48)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.031) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.024 (0.01, 0.06) 0.024 (0.014, 0.053)
Niraparib count 20 20 20 20
time 23 (18, 30) 23 (18, 30) 23 (18, 30) 23 (18, 30)
n 20 (12, 36) 15 (10, 25) 13 (8, 16) 11 (7, 16)
post_p 0.34 (0.05, 0.47) 0.39 (0.12, 0.48) 0.45 (0.31, 0.49) 0.45 (0.37, 0.5)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.014, 0.041) 0.024 (0.016, 0.047) 0.018 (0.01, 0.034) 0.018 (0.008, 0.026)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 119 119 119 119
time 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55) 44 (33, 55)
n 17 (7, 33) 14 (7, 28) 15 (7, 29) 13 (6, 27)
post_p 0.33 (0.14, 0.47) 0.32 (0.1, 0.47) 0.38 (0.15, 0.47) 0.36 (0.14, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.04) 0.024 (0.018, 0.037) 0.022 (0.016, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035)
Taxel_therapies count 99 99 99 99
time 45 (33, 55) 45 (33, 55) 45 (33, 55) 45 (33, 55)
n 17 (7, 32) 15 (8, 29) 11 (6, 25) 12 (5, 29)
post_p 0.33 (0.12, 0.48) 0.33 (0.13, 0.47) 0.37 (0.14, 0.48) 0.38 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.015, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.038) 0.023 (0.016, 0.046) 0.024 (0.017, 0.046)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2
time 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21) 20 (18, 21)
n 14 (13, 16) 16 (14, 18) 12 (10, 13) 10 (7, 13)
post_p 0.43 (0.42, 0.43) 0.47 (0.46, 0.48) 0.43 (0.4, 0.46) 0.4 (0.36, 0.44)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.018) 0.014 (0.008, 0.02) 0.02 (0.015, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.027)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 152 152 152 152
time 36 (25, 50) 36 (25, 50) 36 (25, 50) 36 (25, 50)
n 17 (8, 40) 25 (12, 55) 11 (6, 26) 11 (6, 22)
post_p 0.38 (0.16, 0.49) 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.38 (0.16, 0.48) 0.38 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.017, 0.034) 0.023 (0.017, 0.034) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.023 (0.014, 0.037)
Taxel_therapies count 169 169 169 169
time 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53) 32 (20, 53)
n 17 (11, 31) 26 (16, 51) 11 (6, 27) 8 (5, 21)
post_p 0.36 (0.16, 0.48) 0.34 (0.09, 0.48) 0.4 (0.19, 0.49) 0.39 (0.22, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.014, 0.034) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.022 (0.013, 0.038) 0.025 (0.014, 0.05)
Niraparib count 11 11 11 11
time 26 (19, 32) 26 (19, 32) 26 (19, 32) 26 (19, 32)
n 12 (9, 15) 19 (12, 50) 20 (16, 24) 15 (7, 27)
post_p 0.38 (0.2, 0.47) 0.42 (0.16, 0.48) 0.39 (0.29, 0.47) 0.44 (0.28, 0.5)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.033 (0.015, 0.047) 0.021 (0.018, 0.04) 0.015 (0.009, 0.027) 0.013 (0.011, 0.029)